TOKYO, Dec 4 (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December with the government expected to tolerate such a decision, three government sources familiar with the deliberations said. The BOJ looks set to proceed with a hike in its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5%, which was flagged by […]
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BOJ likely to raise rates in December, government to tolerate move, sources say
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TOKYO, Dec 4 (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates in December with the government expected to tolerate such a decision, three government sources familiar with the deliberations said.
The BOJ looks set to proceed with a hike in its policy rate to 0.75% from 0.5%, which was flagged by Governor Kazuo Ueda in a speech on Monday, the sources said. It would be the first hike since January.
“If the BOJ wants to raise rates this month, please make your own decision. That’s the government’s stance,” said one of the sources, adding it was nearly certain the bank will proceed with a hike this month.
The administration is prepared to tolerate a December hike, another source said. The sources spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak publicly.
The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield hit an 18-year high of 1.930% after the report.
Ueda said on Monday the BOJ will consider the “pros and cons” of raising rates this month, signaling a strong chance of a hike at the December 18-19 meeting.
The remarks led the market to price in a roughly 80% chance of a December rate hike, though some market players focused on how the administration of dovish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi could react.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday she saw no gap between the government and the BOJ on their assessment of the economy, when asked about Ueda’s remarks.
Even reflationist aides of Takaichi have not expressed opposition, including government panel member Toshihiro Nagahama who told Reuters on Wednesday the premier may accept a December hike if the yen stayed weak.
The BOJ’s board is expected to make a final decision after scrutinising upcoming data on domestic wage developments, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision next week and its impact on financial markets.
The market’s focus will likely shift to the central bank’s messaging on how far it will eventually raise interest rates, a topic Ueda remains ambiguous about.
Any clarity on the future rate-hike path will likely come from Ueda’s news conference after the December policy meeting.
Speaking in parliament on Thursday, Ueda said there was uncertainty on how far the BOJ should hike rates due to the difficulty of estimating the country’s neutral rate of interest, or the level that neither stimulates nor cools growth.
The BOJ has produced estimates suggesting Japan’s nominal neutral rate lies somewhere in a range of 1% to 2.5%.
(Reporting by Takaya Yamaguchi, Makiko Yamazaki, Leika Kihara, Yoshifumi Takemoto and Kentaro Sugiyama; Editing by Edwina Gibbs and Sam Holmes)