Baltics and Poland warn Russia could launch limited military or hybrid provocation against NATO

VILNIUS, Lithuania (AP) — Lithuania’s president said Wednesday that intelligence assessments suggest Russia is planning potential attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic states or Poland.

President Gitanas Nauseda said authorities were monitoring the risk of attacks that could disrupt the country’s energy and transport systems, including facilities supporting Lithuania’s connections with the European electricity grid.

“I cannot deny that we have such information and that it concerns limited kinetic operations likely targeting critical infrastructure,” Nauseda told Lithuania’s BNS news agency.

Nauseda said the intelligence did not identify a specific location or timing for the potential attacks. He said that such provocations could involve conventional or other means.

Russia dismissed the claim as an excuse to justify NATO’s military buildup in the Baltics.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics similarly warned on Wednesday that, with Ukraine increasingly effective at putting pressure on Russia, Moscow might respond with provocations against NATO’s eastern flank.

“Even without a total Ukrainian victory, Russia may indirectly test Article 5 and response mechanisms at the Alliance and European Union levels,” Rinkevics said, referring to NATO’s common defense guarantee.

“The next few months, or even the next 12 months, will be crucial for Baltic security,” he added.

The three Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — and Poland, all located on NATO’s eastern flank, have strengthened security around key transport and energy infrastructure in recent months in response to the Russian threat.

The countries say they have long been targets of Russian hybrid attacks, a threat that has intensified since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed the Lithuanian intelligence warning about Russia’s purported plans to launch attacks on infrastructure in the Baltics and elsewhere in Europe.

“It’s a fresh batch of bugaboos intended to continue the brainwashing and prepare the population for further militarization,” Peskov told reporters.

“To do this, they need to create an enemy image on the other side, our side in this case,” he added. “And use it as a pretext to continue moving NATO military infrastructure in all its forms into the Baltic states.”

Nauseda’s comments echo warnings issued in recent weeks by Polish politicians, following multiple media reports that Russia could carry out a limited military or hybrid provocation against Poland in the near future.

In late June, leading Polish outlet onet.pl reported that U.S. intelligence had warned its Polish counterparts about the possibility of a Russian attack. Citing its own sources, the outlet said potential scenarios could include attacks on critical infrastructure, incursions by Russian soldiers near border areas and drone operations.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on July 3 that the warnings should be taken seriously and noted that he had been issuing similar alerts for weeks.

“Poland is preparing very intensively for various scenarios,” Tusk said. “I don’t want to scare anyone, but the coming months, also because of the changing nature of the war in Ukraine, could be critical.”

Tusk added that concerns were particularly pronounced in the Baltic states.

“We are not afraid; we are preparing for various scenarios, but we cannot take this lightly,” he added. “We are conscious of the dangers also because of information coming from our allies.”

Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said Poland had a message for Russian leader Vladimir Putin: “We know what you are planning. Don’t do it.”

General Raimundas Vaiksnoras, Lithuania’s chief of defense, recently confirmed that the military had deployed additional forces to help protect strategic infrastructure in response to concerns over possible Russian provocations.

Vaiksnoras told reporters that Russia’s recent rhetoric targeting the Baltic states and Poland appears to serve a broader purpose, warning that Moscow has long sought to erode public trust in state institutions, the military and the government.

Poland had similarly intensified protection of key infrastructure following a November attack on rail infrastructure blamed on Russia.

On Monday, the European Union said Russia’s FSB Center 16 had conducted cyber‑espionage and sabotage against defense industries and critical infrastructure across Europe, including a December attack against a Polish combined heat and power plant supplying heat to almost 500,000 customers.

A recent report from the International Institute of Strategic Studies think tank said Russia likely used shadow ships to launch drones over Europe that repeatedly disrupted civilian aviation between 2024 and 2026.

The Baltic region is under additional strain from stray Ukrainian drones that have reached Baltic countries as Ukraine ramped up attacks on Baltic Sea ports used for Russian energy exports.

In mid-May, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina resigned over the government’s handling of multiple incidents involving stray drones suspected to be from Ukraine crossing into Latvian territory.

In late May, for the first time in a NATO and European Union capital, Lithuanians were pictured sheltering in underground car parks in the capital Vilnius, as authorities warned of unidentified drone activity.

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Ciobanu reported from WARSAW, Poland.