As violence surges, right-wing populist emerges as frontrunner in Costa Rica’s presidential election

SAN JOSE, Jan 29 (Reuters) – Costa Ricans head into Sunday’s elections with polls indicating that a right-wing populist is the clear frontrunner, amid a surge of drug trafficking and violence that has eroded the country’s image as a peaceful tourist haven.

Laura Fernandez, 39, a political scientist and former presidential chief of staff, holds a commanding lead, signaling voter appetite in the Central American country to extend the right’s mandate.

The election underscores the growing appeal in Latin America of strongmen leaders like El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele who champion their tough security policies at the expense of shrinking civil liberties.

Fernandez campaigned on a vow to continue the policies of Costa Rica’s current president and her mentor, Rodrigo Chaves, a brash former World Bank economist who is facing a number of corruption investigations while remaining deeply popular.

“Rodrigo Chaves’ project is not a four-year event, it’s a one-way street,” Fernandez said in a campaign video.

The election is seen by many as a referendum on Chaves’ leadership and his tough-on-crime policies.

Fernandez has asked voters to hand her 40 seats in the 57-seat legislative assembly, a supermajority that would allow her to reform the judiciary and constitution, including allowing consecutive or indefinite reelection. Currently, the term is set at four years but cannot be served consecutively.

She has also pledged to enact stricter criminal sentences, reform state pensions and fight crime.

Latest polls show Fernandez at or around 40%, the amount needed to avoid a runoff vote in April, while her closest contenders in the 20-person race are polling in the single digits.

If Fernandez fails to garner enough support to win the election outright, those seen as most likely to make it to a second round against Fernandez include Alvaro Ramos, an economist from the mainstream National Liberation Party and Claudia Dobles, an architect and former first lady who returned to revive the fledgling Citizen Action Party after working as a researcher at MIT.

Most of the 19 opposition candidates have warned against the risk of an emerging authoritarian model led by Chaves, but have failed to form a united front against Fernandez.

DRUG TRAFFICKING MARS COUNTRY’S IMAGE

A major tourist destination, Costa Rica has long been lauded as a peaceful oasis in a region plagued by civil wars, gang violence and drug trafficking.

But the country of about 5.2 million has seen record levels of murders in recent years as it becomes a growing hotspot for global cocaine trafficking according to the U.S. government.

In late January, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned a Costa Rican drug network and said the country “has become an increasingly significant waypoint for criminal organizations trafficking cocaine to the United States.”

The statement underscored a major transformation for a country that has no military and attracts over 2 million tourists a year.

“The speed with which drug traffickers have infiltrated the country and captured some of the country’s institutions hasn’t been seen before,” said Maria Fernanda Bozmoski, the director for Central America at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based international affairs think tank.

While rising violence and murders have led to an anti-incumbent shift in recent elections in Chile, Honduras and Ecuador, Bozmoski said that Chaves has remained largely immune to that sentiment.

TOUGH APPROACH

Ronald Rodriguez, a 61-year-old retiree from the canton of San Carlos in northern Costa Rica, said Chaves’ movement needs more time and power for its policies to make an impact.

“The problem isn’t Chaves, it’s all of those who came before him and let things get worse,” Rodriguez said. “Things are worse than ever and that’s why we need the things Chaves is promising, changing the judiciary and building that Bukele jail fast.”

El Salvador’s Bukele recently visited Costa Rica to inaugurate a maximum-security prison modeled after El Salvador’s 40,000-inmate Terrorism Confinement Center (CECOT) and Fernandez has vowed to see it through.

Ronald Alfaro, a researcher at Costa Rica’s Center for Investigations and Political Studies (CIEP), said Chaves’ popularity stems from his anti-status quo reputation.

“His support, like other similar political figures, is more based on his persona and what he represents,” Alfaro said. “That’s why the government’s slogan is, if you want change, vote for continuity.”

Despite the incumbent party’s lead, a January poll from CIEP shows nearly a third of voters remain undecided while 79% of respondents said they were a little enthusiastic or not enthusiastic at all about the election.

(Reporting by Alexander Villegas and Alvaro Murillo; Editing by Emily Green and Diane Craft)