Saudi Aramco third-quarter profit slips on lower crude prices

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By Federico Maccioni and Maha El Dahan

DUBAI (Reuters) -Saudi Arabia’s Aramco, the world’s top oil exporter, reported a 2.3% fall in quarterly profit on Tuesday, citing a drop in crude and product prices, but its performance improved from the previous quarter as oil production rose.

The kingdom has been pumping more crude as OPEC+ unwinds voluntary production cuts after several years of cutting back to support the market.

In October, crude oil futures fell for a third consecutive month, dropping more than 2% and hitting a five-month low, on fears of a supply glut and U.S. tariff concerns.

Aramco reported net profit of 101.02 billion riyals ($26.94 billion) in the three-month period ended on September 30, down from 103.4 billion riyals last year.

However, net profit was up around 19% compared to the second quarter as revenues rose due to higher volumes and prices for both crude oil and refined and chemical products.

“Our rule of thumb is that every 1 million barrels per day of additional crude oil production translates into an additional $11 billion of annual operating cash flow based on 2025 average prices year-to-date,” Aramco CFO Ziad Al-Murshed told analysts.

The company’s total hydrocarbon production was 13.27 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in the third quarter, compared to 12.8 million boepd the previous quarter.

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to a small oil output increase for December and a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year, in what some investors saw as a signal of oversupply in the market. 

Adjusted net profit, which does not include non-recurring items, at Aramco came in at $28 billion during the third quarter, beating a company-provided median analyst estimate of $26.5 billion.

Aramco’s shares rose by up to 1.1% after the earnings were published and closed up 0.7% at 25.76 riyals apiece.

FOCUS ON GAS  

Aramco on Tuesday raised its 2030 sales gas production capacity growth target to about 80% above 2021 levels, up from its earlier goal of more than 60%.

This increase is expected to bring total gas and associated liquids production to around 6 million boepd, Aramco said citing the expected contribution of its Jafurah field, which is central to Saudi Arabia’s ambitions to become a major global player in natural gas. 

“As we develop our plans, we see (gas) demand growth increasing more than previously forecasted, including higher demand from additional uses such as AI data centers,” CEO Amin Nasser said in the call with analysts. 

JPMorgan analysts said in a note that the upgraded guidance translated into a material increase of over 500,000 boepd.

STEADY DIVIDENDS

Aramco confirmed $21.3 billion in total dividends for the third quarter, about $200 million of which is performance-linked.

The dividends, which will be about one-third lower this year, are a critical source of income for the Saudi Arabian government, which owns 81.5% of Aramco shares directly and another 16% through its sovereign wealth fund PIF.

The kingdom has invested billions to diversify its economy away from oil, which still generated 62% of government revenue last year.

Free cash flow for the third quarter jumped 55% to $23.6 billion from the previous three months, Aramco said, citing higher net cash from operating activities coupled with steady capital expenditures.

The cash flow figure is only $2.3 billion higher than the company’s total dividend payout for the quarter. 

Total borrowing rose to $95.1 billion as of September 30 from $80.9 billion a year earlier, with Aramco raising $5 billion from a bond in May and a further $3 billion from a sale of Islamic bonds in September.

Gearing was 6.3%, from 1.9% at the end of September 2024.

($1 = 3.7504 riyals)

(Reporting by Federico Maccioni and Maha El Dahan; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips, Christian Schmollinger and Alexander Smith)