Analysis-Ukraine’s path to EU will be tough, with or without Hungarian hurdle

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By Lili Bayer

KYIV (Reuters) -Senior European Union officials who visited Ukraine have delivered a stern message to Kyiv that it has a lot more to do to secure membership, while they work on overcoming Hungary’s opposition to Ukrainian accession.

Ukraine needs the backing of all 27 EU countries to become a member, but Budapest is blocking it from moving to the next stage of accession negotiations, citing concerns including the language rights of ethnic Hungarians.

Hungary’s stance has frustrated other EU states, and the bloc’s enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, led a high-level charm offensive in Ukraine last week, meeting the Hungarian minority in the west of the country to try to ease tensions.

EU MEMBERSHIP IS A BEACON OF HOPE FOR MANY UKRAINIANS

For many people in Ukraine, the prospect of EU membership represents a beacon of hope for a prosperous future, over three decades after it won independence from the Soviet Union.

In 2014, a pro-Russian president was ousted by mass protests after trying to divert Kyiv away from seeking EU membership, and Russia’s war in Ukraine has made EU accession even more attractive for pro-Western Ukrainians.

But an attempt by Kyiv over the summer to curb the independence of key watchdogs alarmed many European governments and put a spotlight on the reform challenges facing Ukraine, which needs to align its laws with EU standards.

The EU “cannot accept a new member state which is really not 100 percent following the rule of law,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Kos told Reuters in an interview in Ukraine.

Kos said “one part of this, showing the love, is being really strict,” adding that, when it comes to reforms in areas ranging from agriculture to the environment, “now the tough work will come”.

PUSHBACK AGAINST HUNGARY

European officials have signalled that if Ukraine sticks to reforms and fully adheres to rule-of-law norms, they will find a way to sidestep Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s opposition and ensure Ukraine makes progress toward accession.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency until the end of December, said in Copenhagen on Thursday that Ukraine and the EU can keep working on reforms to help Kyiv prepare for membership.

“I will not allow one country, and I will certainly not allow Viktor Orban, to take decisions upon the entire European future,” she said.

RULE OF LAW

In Ukraine last week, European officials underscored that respect for the rule of law is a pre-requisite for membership.

The messaging was partly a response to steps taken on July 22 to establish greater control by the prosecutor general, a political appointee, over Ukraine’s anti-corruption bureau and a specialised prosecution unit.

Rare wartime protests led Ukraine’s leadership to quickly reverse course, but the episode caught the attention of Kyiv’s closest partners.

“What happened on the 22nd of July should never happen again,” Kos said in the interview, warning about the risk of losing EU member countries’ trust and that everything must be corrected “until the end”.

“It is not done yet,” she said.

European officials say they believe Ukraine will ultimately adhere to the standards, and that there is strong commitment in Ukrainian society to keep going.

“The only worry is how, and how long, but not if,” Kos said.

Taras Kachka, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European integration, said in a statement to Reuters that the country “will continue to implement reforms in accordance with its international commitments”.

LONG ROAD AHEAD

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in February that Ukraine could join the bloc before 2030 if it continued its reforms at their current speed and quality, but that timeline is treated with skepticism by some officials.

Ukraine “is a big, important and strategically located country, and things cannot be swept under the carpet,” said one EU diplomat.

A second EU diplomat said that “we see impressive progress from Ukraine, especially given the war, but the EU accession process is arduous and lengthy”.

In the near term, Hungary’s opposition is the main obstacle to Ukraine’s bid.

In 2023, Orban chose not to veto a decision by EU leaders to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, but Hungary is now blocking Ukraine from moving to the next stage – negotiations on “clusters” covering thematic policy areas.

TECHNICAL WORK LIKELY TO CONTINUE

Some European officials have floated the idea of opening the clusters without unanimity across the EU, bypassing Hungary’s objection.

But changing the rules requires the backing of all 27 states and officials say continuing technical work with Ukraine without formally opening the clusters remains the more likely near-term option.

“If we are not able to convince each other, then I simply think we just have to move on with all the work that has to be done between Ukraine and the European Commission,” Denmark’s Frederiksen said.

Kachka, the Ukrainian deputy prime minister, said Ukraine is taking a “pragmatic” approach and will keep reforming so it can move quickly once it is possible to proceed to the next stage.

In the longer run, Ukraine’s EU aspirations could run into obstacles in other parts of the bloc.

A Eurobarometer poll published in September found 52% of EU citizens support Ukraine’s accession, provided it meets all membership conditions, and that 41% are opposed.

But while 91% of Swedes support Ukraine joining once it meets all conditions, 48% of people in France and only 28% in the Czech Republic are in support.

Kos said the EU had time to look at the concerns in each country and address them.

“Just let’s talk about it,” she said. “What are your concerns? And let’s see if we can explain.”

(Additional reporting by Andrew Gray in Copenhagen; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Timothy Heritage)