Analysis-Trump’s Asian allies fear Iran war will sap defences against China

By Tamiyuki Kihara, Ben Blanchard, Tim Kelly and Praveen Menon

TOKYO/TAIPEI/SYDNEY, March 3 (Reuters) – Japanese lawmakers reeling from attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel gathered on Monday at the ruling party’s offices in Tokyo to question bureaucrats about evacuation plans, energy stocks and the legal basis for U.S. action.

But one query posed at the closed-door meeting, described to Reuters by a politician who attended, reflected a deeper fear haunting Asia’s corridors of power since Trump’s weekend attacks unleashed chaos in the Middle East.

How would the region respond to a hole left in its defences if Washington diverted ships and missiles it now uses to deter China?

The problem is urgent for Japan and South Korea, home to big U.S. military bases that help counter China’s military flexing and nuclear-armed North Korea, as well as for democratic Taiwan, claimed by Beijing and armed by Washington.

“We hope this operation is fast, limited, and that resources can be promptly shifted back to Asia,” said Chen Kuan-ting, a ruling party lawmaker in Taiwan who sits on its parliament’s foreign affairs and defence committee.

A prolonged conflict could harm “stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific”, said Chen, adding that Taipei must prepare for Beijing to step up “coercion” while the United States is distracted.

Trump, who has said U.S. operations in the Middle East will last four or five weeks, but could be sustained far longer, plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the end of March, though Beijing has not confirmed his visit.

Taiwan is an internal matter for China and Beijing firmly opposes the use of force to infringe on the sovereignty and security of other countries, Mao Ning, a spokesperson for China’s foreign ministry said on Tuesday.

The U.S. State and Defense Departments did not immediately respond to a request for comment for this report.

‘STRETCHED THIN’

The Japanese politician who recounted Monday’s questioning said a top foreign ministry official replied that Tokyo had sought assurances from Washington that it would not shift U.S. military assets.

About 40% of U.S. navy ships ready for operations are currently stationed around the Middle East, the Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a report last month.

These include an aircraft carrier, the Abraham Lincoln, and at least six missile destroyers based in the Pacific ports of California, Hawaii and Japan, the U.S. Naval Institute said on Monday.

The only U.S. carrier deployed in Asia, the George Washington, is undergoing maintenance at its base in the Japanese city of Yokosuka.

“The U.S. Navy is stretched thin,” said Bryan Clark, a former U.S. defence official specialising in naval operations at the Hudson Institute.

If the war dragged on, there was a realistic possibility that the United States could draw down its naval strength in Asia to reinforce the Iran conflict, he added.

“The fleet … is not sufficient to keep a steady presence in every theatre.”

The Iran conflict is also depleting reserves of U.S. munitions, about which experts have long warned. The U.S. military has asked defence firms to step up production, but that could take several years.

That is a concern for the United States because rebuilding munitions reserves in the Indo-Pacific helps deter China from military action on Taiwan over the medium term, said a U.S. official, who sought anonymity as the matter is a sensitive one.

Japan has already faced delays in deliveries of hundreds of Tomahawk missiles ordered from the United States and could fall further behind schedule, said Jan van Tol, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.

GRAND STRATEGY?

It is just three months since Washington unveiled a new security strategy that framed the Indo-Pacific as the key “geopolitical battleground”, and made a top priority of deterring a conflict over Taiwan.

Since then, Trump has captured the leader of Venezuela in an audacious military strike, threatened to annex Greenland and teamed with Israel to launch the air war against Iran.

But while allies in Asia worry he may be taking his eye off the prize, some analysts say Beijing has little to cheer, at least for now.

By hitting Venezuela and Iran, Trump weakened two of its allies that sent China streams of cheap oil, buoying its economy.

Some analysts have even suggested his military actions are part of a grand plan to enable the United States to focus on containing China.

But the longer Trump’s entanglement in the Middle East persists, the more Beijing could start to benefit.

“The grand strategy is supposed to be ‘contain Iran in the Middle East, then shift resources toward dealing with China,'” said a Japanese ruling party lawmaker, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“But the question is whether there will be enough resources left to shift.”

China has exploited previous episodes of U.S. distraction, said Jennifer Parker, a former warfare officer with the Royal Australian Navy, pointing to its rapid militarisation of South China Sea islands as the U.S. pursued the war in Afghanistan.

“Beijing will be watching closely,” added Parker, a non-resident fellow at the Sydney-based Lowy Institute think tank.

(Reporting by Tamiyuki Kihara and Tim Kelly in Tokyo, Ben Blanchard in Taipei, Antoni Slodkowski and Ethan Wang in Beijing, Praveen Menon in Sydney and Michael Martina in Washington DC; Writing by John Geddie; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)