Analysis-Pakistan leans on US and Iran ties to emerge as potential peacebroker

By Ariba Shahid, Saad Sayeed and Mubasher Bukhari

ISLAMABAD, March 24 (Reuters) – Pakistan’s role as a possible host of talks aimed at ending the Iran war builds on its courtship of U.S. President Donald Trump and its reputation as a relatively neutral player with long-standing ties to neighbouring Iran’s Islamic Republic.

If talks happen, it could raise Pakistan’s global prominence to heights not reached since Pakistan helped mediate the secret diplomatic opening that led to U.S. President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972.

It would cap over a year of relationship building with Trump that has involved astute diplomacy and crypto deals.

Pakistan, which maintains direct contact with both Washington and Tehran at a time when such channels are frozen for most other countries, would also benefit directly from an end to the war.

The South Asian nation is home to the world’s second-largest Shi’ite Muslim population after Iran, and faced nationwide protests the day after U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei at the start of the conflict on February 28.

The risk of a prolonged war in Iran spilling over into Pakistan is among Islamabad’s biggest fears, analysts and security officials say. Pakistan, which has been engaged in a conflict with the Afghan Taliban, has also suffered from fuel disruptions caused by the Iran war.

“Pakistan has unusual credibility as a mediator, maintaining workable ties with both Washington and Tehran, while a history of strained relations with each gives it just enough distance to be seen as a credible go-between,” Adam Weinstein, deputy director of the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute, told Reuters.

RELATIONSHIP BUILDING WITH TRUMP

Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has built a close relationship with Trump to repair years of mistrust. Pakistan joined Trump’s Board of Peace just after Munir flew to Davos to meet Trump in January.

Pakistan has also struck a deal with a crypto business linked to Trump’s family to use its USD1 stablecoin for cross-border payments, while White House envoy Steve Witkoff helped broker an agreement to redevelop New York’s Roosevelt Hotel, owned by Pakistan’s national airline.

Pakistan has been involved in diplomacy to end the Iran conflict since it started, including shuttling at least half a dozen messages between the U.S. and Iran, according to five official Pakistani sources.

Before Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed the offer of talks on Tuesday, one of the Pakistani sources and a foreign source said that officials from both countries could hold talks in Islamabad as soon as the end of this week. The Pakistani source said U.S. Vice President JD Vance, Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner were expected to take part.

According to official press releases, over the past month, Sharif and Pakistan’s foreign minister have held over 30 conversations with counterparts in the Middle East, including half a dozen with Iranian officials. Two took place on Monday, the same day the U.S. said mediation efforts were underway, and came alongside a phone conversation between Munir and Trump that was confirmed by the White House.

“Pakistan hosting U.S.-Iran talks represents a major upgrade in Islamabad’s strategic standing,” Kamran Bokhari, senior resident fellow with the Middle East Policy Council in Washington, told Reuters.

“After decades of being a troubled state, Pakistan appears to be re-emerging as a major American ally in West Asia,” he said.

TIES WITH TEHRAN

Bokhari said Pakistan was Iran’s least adversarial neighbour while maintaining “the closest ties with its historic regional adversary Saudi Arabia and (being) trusted by Washington”.

Pakistan shares a sensitive border with Iran across its southwestern Balochistan province, the site of a decades-long insurgency. The neighbours clashed along their border in January 2024, but ties have since been repaired.

Iran may perceive it as more neutral than other possible mediators. “Unlike Gulf states like Qatar, Pakistan does not host U.S. military bases and is a military power in its own right,” said Weinstein.

Pakistan can also lean on its historic role as an intermediary – Tehran’s de-facto diplomatic mission in the U.S. has been hosted at Pakistan’s embassy in Washington since diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran ruptured in 1979.

Islamabad’s mutual defence agreement with Riyadh, signed in September, requires both countries to come to the other’s aid and has therefore weighed on calculations.

As the U.S. war in Iran entered its second week and Tehran struck Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar said he had reminded Iran of the pact and was attempting to mediate with Iran.

Security sources in Pakistan said Islamabad was bound by the pact but was working to avoid entering the conflict through its backchannel talks with Tehran.

(Reporting by Ariba Shahid in Islamabad, Mubasher Bukhari in Lahore and Saad Sayeed in Bangkok; Additional reporting by Alexander Cornwell in Tel Aviv; Editing by Aidan Lewis)