Analysis-Mexico condemns attack on Venezuela while seeking to avoid its fate

By Laura Gottesdiener and Emily Green

MEXICO CITY, Jan 6 (Reuters) – In the wake of the U.S. attack on Venezuela, the Mexican government has found itself traversing the most delicate balancing act since President Donald Trump began his second term: strongly condemning the operation while doubling down on bilateral cooperation lest Mexico find itself in Trump’s crosshairs next.

On Saturday, hours after the elite U.S. special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife in their home, Trump floated the prospect of U.S. military action inside Mexico, saying drug cartels are “running” the country and that “something is gonna have to be done with Mexico.”

The weekend’s events clearly rattled Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum. She started her daily morning press conference on Monday reading from a document that detailed Mexico’s position on Venezuela. 

“We categorically reject intervention in the internal affairs of other countries,” she said. “The history of Latin America is clear and compelling: intervention has never brought democracy, never generated well-being, nor lasting stability.”

Sheinbaum’s comments rank among her sharpest criticisms of Washington since Trump took office and are among the strongest rebukes in the region of Maduro’s ouster. 

Security analysts said Sheinbaum’s fierce condemnation of the attack signaled that she would not tolerate similar actions against drug traffickers in Mexico. The U.S. Justice Department has charged Maduro with crimes related to drug trafficking, terrorism and weapons; he pleaded not guilty in a New York courthouse on Monday and declared himself “a prisoner of war.” 

But behind the scenes, Mexico City is likely to move even closer to Washington in the wake of the Venezuela attack, hoping that increasingly tight bilateral security cooperation will stave off U.S. aggressions, Mexican officials and security analysts said. 

“Increasing joint security cooperation and strengthening Mexico’s own fight against the cartels will be key to avoiding unilateral U.S. military intervention,” said a Mexican security official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

A WARNING TO THE ENTIRE REGION

Security analysts say the attack on Venezuela significantly elevated the stakes for Mexico City by signaling just how far Trump is willing to go to assert U.S. dominance in Latin America.

“It served as a warning to the entire region,” said Mexican security analyst Carlos Perez Ricart. “(Sheinbaum) is walking a very fine line: declaring a firm stance against intervention but also doing the only thing Mexico can do with such an asymmetrical power dynamic: continue to cooperate with the U.S.”

Over the last year, Sheinbaum has successfully traversed this political tight rope, defending Mexico’s sovereignty while placating Washington with two mass expulsions to the U.S. of alleged high-level cartel operatives and undertaking a year-long military offensive against the Sinaloa Cartel.  

Such actions have drawn praise from top U.S. officials.

“I think that the ongoing bilateral investigations and cooperation has been moving in the right direction,” said Derek Maltz, who served as acting administrator of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration at the beginning of Trump’s second term. He said he doesn’t anticipate U.S. military action in Mexico in the near future. 

David Mora, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, said he expected to see the Mexican government engage in joint military operations with the U.S., something it hasn’t done to date. “Pressure on Sheinbaum will increase.”

LAW OF THE JUNGLE

As the fallout over Venezuela continues, officials in Mexico weighed the possibility – however remote – of a military attack. While few believe Washington would target Mexican leadership as it did with Maduro, even a unilateral move against drug cartels would deliver a severe blow to the government, undermining its authority and violating the sovereignty it has vowed to defend.  

“It would be an international catastrophe,” said Mexican Congressman Alfonso Ramirez Cuellar, a close ally of Sheinbaum’s, who said that he didn’t think Washington would go so far because of the two countries’ close relationship on security and trade, and Mexico’s “strong disposition to collaborate and cooperate” with the U.S. “The world can’t live in the law of the jungle.”

Analysts, including Perez Ricart, said they thought U.S. attention would turn to other Latin American countries before Mexico, after Trump criticized the leadership of Colombia and Cuba on Sunday.

The Mexican security official agreed.

“Until we see (attacks in) Colombia and Cuba, then we’ll know that we’re next,” the official said. 

(Reporting by Laura Gottesdiener and Emily Green; Editing by Lincoln Feast.)