Analysis-How Trump’s long-shot voting bill could hurt his own supporters

By Joseph Ax

March 17 (Reuters) – For weeks, President Donald Trump has demanded that Republicans pass legislation requiring Americans to provide proof of citizenship when registering to vote, arguing it would deliver the party a “guaranteed” win in November’s midterm elections.

Despite his pressure, the legislation, known as the SAVE America Act, faces long odds in the Senate thanks to Democratic opposition. But if it is enacted, it could end up hurting a surprising constituency: Trump’s own supporters.

Under the legislation, most voters would need either a valid U.S. passport or birth certificate to register to vote; identification such as driver’s licenses or REAL IDs do not typically prove citizenship. Many voters would also have to register in person.

About 21 million eligible voters do not have easy access to documents proving their citizenship, according to the University of Maryland’s Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement.

While voting rights advocates warn the bill would hurt voters of all kinds, Trump supporters could be particularly affected. Data and surveys suggest Republican voters are less likely to own a passport than the overall population and more likely to have changed their names when marrying, potentially creating a mismatch with their birth certificates.

Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune will bring the bill to the Senate floor this week, after Trump told Republican House members that passage would “guarantee the midterms.” The House of Representatives passed the bill last month following similar efforts in 2024 and 2025. 

Trump has demanded Thune change the Senate’s filibuster rules so Republicans can approve the bill with a simple majority, vowing not to sign any legislation until they do. So far, there is not enough Republican support to take that step. 

Trump argues the legislation will prevent non-citizens from voting, part of his false claims of widespread voter fraud. Federal law already bars non-citizens from voting. Democrats have castigated the bill as a form of voter suppression.

MARRIED AND RURAL VOTERS

Fourteen of the 17 states with the highest rates of passport ownership voted for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris for president in 2024, according to an analysis from the left-leaning Center for American Progress. The dozen states with the lowest levels of passport ownership all supported Trump.

“Republican voters will be disproportionately impacted by the burdens of the SAVE Act,” said Greta Bedekovics, the director of democracy policy at the Center for American Progress.

Most of the states with the lowest rates of passport ownership are rural, where voters could face more obstacles in reaching election offices to register in person, according to Nicole Hansen, a lawyer with the nonpartisan Campaign Legal Center.

Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, a Republican who opposes the bill, noted one-fifth of her state’s residents do not live on the road system and might have to fly to an election office to register. “The bill as written would disenfranchise many Alaskans,” she wrote in a recent op-ed.

Republican Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas dismissed the idea that the bill unfairly burdens rural residents.

“Once a week, once every two weeks, they’re going to the county seat to get groceries, to get healthcare, to buy a car,” he told Reuters. “So they’re going there anyway.”        

Surveys also show that passport ownership is strongly correlated with higher levels of educational attainment. In 2024, Trump dominated among voters with a high school education or less, while Harris won those with a four-year college degree or higher.

REGISTRATION CONCERNS

Critics have also argued the bill could present barriers for married women because their birth certificates might not match their names. A 2023 Pew Research Center study found Democratic women were twice as likely as Republican women to keep their last name when marrying.

CNN’s exit polls from the 2024 presidential election showed married women supported Trump over Harris by a 52% to 47% margin, while single women overwhelmingly favored Harris, 61% to 38%.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called it a “huge myth” that the bill would hurt married women, saying a fraction would have to update their documentation.

The act would have a sweeping effect on election administration nationwide. More than 100 million Americans either submitted new registrations or updated existing ones between 2022 and 2024, federal data shows.

Not every analyst agrees Trump voters would feel the brunt.

Wren Orey, director of the elections project at the Bipartisan Policy Center think tank, said that while survey data shows about 12% of Americans do not have easy access to either a passport or birth certificate, Orey’s analysis did not find a significant split between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans were more likely to report having a birth certificate, while Democrats more often said they had a passport.

The bill “would impact a large portion of Americans across all demographic groups,” Orey said.

(Reporting by Joseph Ax; Additional reporting by David Morgan; editing by Paul Thomasch and David Gaffen)