AMD forecasts $1.5 billion revenue hit from US curbs on China chip exports

Audio By Carbonatix

Enlarge

By Arsheeya Bajwa, Max A. Cherney

(Reuters) -Advanced Micro Devices on Tuesday forecast a $1.5 billion hit to revenue this year due to new U.S. curbs on chips, which require the company to obtain a license to ship advanced artificial-intelligence processors to China.

But it issued a second-quarter revenue forecast that topped Wall Street estimates, which analysts attributed to customers buying more chips ahead of tariffs. Its shares were last up about 1% in after-hours trading after rising as much as 6% and falling as much as 3.5%.

Under the Biden and Trump administrations, the U.S. has pursued increasingly aggressive curbs on AI chip exports to China. These controls are aimed at hobbling China’s ability to build advanced AI models and applications that, according to the U.S., could have national security implications. 

AMD CEO Lisa Su said on a conference call on Tuesday that most of the impact from the curbs would affect the second and third quarters this year. Despite the new controls, Su said she expects AI chip revenue from the company’s data center business to grow this year by “strong double digits.” 

“It’s certainly a headwind, but one which we think is well contained given everything else that we have going on,” she said.

In April, AMD said it would record an $800 million charge from the new U.S. tariffs on chip exports to China. On Tuesday, it forecast adjusted gross margin of 43%, which represents an 11 percentage-point drop from the gross margin excluding the charge.

Like AMD, Nvidia has also warned Wall Street that it will now need an export license to China. Nvidia faces a $5.5 billion charge as a result.

China accounts for roughly a quarter of AMD’s total revenue, and the impact of the export controls would shave nearly 5% off the Wall Street forecast for revenue of $31.03 billion per LSEG data.

AMD finance chief Jean Hu said in the conference call following the results that the $1.5 billion revenue hit for 2025 was due to the new round of export controls from April.

“The subtext is hard to miss; big hyperscalers would rather accelerate purchase order dates than risk export‑license roulette once the latest China rules bite,” said Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital.

“The flip side is that, once those safety‑stock closets are full, Q3 could feel like the morning after a Red Bull binge … keep one eye on backlog burn rates and another on Washington’s next tariff tweet,” he said.

GROWTH DESPITE CHINA

Still, the optimistic forecast shows that demand for AMD’s advanced processors remains strong as they power complex AI systems for Microsoft, Meta Platforms and other customers. These cloud giants recently reinforced hefty spending plans for building AI infrastructure.

On the conference call, Su said the company had not seen a lot of “tariff-related activity” in the first quarter.

The company expects revenue of about $7.4 billion for the second quarter, plus or minus $300 million, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $7.25 billion.

In February, the company steered away from a practice of giving a specific sales forecast for its AI chips, but Su had said AMD expects “tens of billions” of dollars in sales “in the next couple of years.”

AMD reported data center sales jumped 57% to $3.7 billion, which topped estimates of $3.62 billion. The company includes much of its AI hardware in its data center segment.

Total revenue jumped a better-than-expected 36% to $7.44 billion. Adjusted profit of 96 cents a share was ahead of estimates by 2 cents a share.

Chip maker Marvell Technology and server maker Super Micro both disappointed investors on Tuesday. Marvell pushed back a planned Investor Day to a later date in calendar 2026, citing the uncertain economy, and Super Micro trimmed its 2025 revenue forecast, adding to concerns about its position in the AI market. Marvell shares were down 4.5% after hours and Super Micro were down 5%. 

(Reporting by Arsheeya Bajwa in Bengaluru and Max A. Cherney in San Francisco; Editing by Alan Barona, Sayantani Ghosh and Matthew Lewis)